A recent survey by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg shows Lula (PT) leading with 43.4% of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) trails with 33.7% in the first round. This gives Lula a 9.7 percentage point advantage.
The monthly series indicates a loss of momentum for both leaders, with Lula oscillating between 44% in April and 46% in June, before dropping to 43.4%. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro has receded from 39% to 37% and now 33.7% over the same period.
The most surprising movement in this round was the advance of Augusto Cury (Avante), who reached 7.8% and assumed the third position. Renan Santos (Missão) also advanced, appearing with 7.6%. Following them, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 3.3%, and Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who is ineligible, marks 1.9%. Romeu Zema (Novo) registers 1%, while other candidates sum 1.2%.
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Lula‘s advantage is rooted in a well-known electoral coalition: women (48.4%), the Northeast (52.4%), voters over 60 years old (63.9%), Catholics (54.3%), and individuals with higher education (50.6%). The pattern is less linear in terms of income, with Lula performing stronger in lower and higher income brackets, while the middle brackets are more competitive.
Lula‘s strength is significantly greater among his 2022 voters, with 98.5% of the left-wing Lula supporters and 88.7% of those who voted for him in the second round of 2022 remaining loyal. The loyalty is lower among non-Lula leftists but still reaches 87.5%. Lula also leads among independents, with 38.2% support.
Flávio Bolsonaro largely reproduces the opposite electoral map to Lula, being stronger among evangelicals (51.7%), in the Centro-Oeste (43.3%), and among voters aged 45 to 59 years old (43.3%), in addition to concentrating almost all of the Bolsonaro right-wing vote: 96.6% of this electorate declares they will vote for him. He also retains 69.4% of the votes that went to Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.
Among independent voters, Flávio Bolsonaro achieves the support of only 26% of this segment, indicating that his consolidation as the main right-wing candidate has not yet translated into equivalent expansion among less ideologized voters.
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Lula maintains his lead in the second round, with 47.1% against Flávio Bolsonaro‘s 42.6%, a difference of 4.5 points. The senator has practically not varied between July and August, while Lula receded 2.1 points in a month, from 49.2% to 47.1%. The president’s drop reduces his advantage in the second round but does not change the leadership scenario: the dispute is tighter, although Lula still preserves a 4.5 point difference.
In essence, the president maintains his advantage in both the first and second rounds, while the senator consolidates himself at a level closer to Lula. However, Flávio Bolsonaro‘s challenge lies beyond consolidating the right: he still needs to advance among independent voters and other segments outside his base to convert the strength of Bolsonarism into a national majority.
The survey consulted 5,014 voters over the internet between August 25 and 30. The margin of error is one percentage point, with a 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-07972/2026.
